PHOTO BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Patriots running back Dion Lewis could be an “X-factor” in Sunday’s AFC championship game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
By STEVE KRAUSE
I’ll be blunt. I don’t like this matchup between the Patriots and Steelers.
All those people who have complained that the Patriots haven’t had to face a real, live NFL quarterback all season will either be smiling smugly by tomorrow night or pounding their heads against the wall because, once again, Brady and Belichick have figured out a way to win.
This could go either way. Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady are elite quarterbacks who can, under the right circumstances, pick you apart. They will both have the luxury of facing defenses that, despite the statistics, really don’t put the fear of God in anyone.
What makes Pittsburgh doubly scary is its running game, because the best way to win in the NFL when you’re playing a high-powered offense is to keep it off the field. A running back such as Le’Veon Bell can certainly do that. He’s not only powerful but quick, and his special talent is the ability to wait until the last possible minute and then blast through his hole.
The Patriots, of course, have two backs who can kind of compensate together for what Bell gives the Steelers. The beauty there is that the Steelers’ defense has to be on guard for both and they’re different as night and day. LeGarrette Blount is a load. And watching Dion Lewis last Saturday night beat the entire Houston defense around the corner on his way to the end zone for the Patriots’ first touchdown was a revelation. He can fly, and he’s a perfect counterpoint to Blount’s strength. Since the Steelers didn’t see him in Pittsburgh, he could be a true “X-factor” in this game.
If this game becomes a shootout, the Patriots could be in deep trouble. The Steelers have Antonio Brown, their big weapon rested, ready, and certainly humbled by his brush with Internet-streaming fame this week. He’ll certainly be out to prove he can be more than a distraction. Although the Patriots have slowed him down when they’ve played the Steelers in the past, he’s impossible to stop completely. I expect Roethlisberger and Brown to connect on at least one home run Sunday, which means the rest of the time, that defense is going to have to hold. Or else.
The Patriots will miss not having Rob Gronkowski in this game. They may not miss him from 20 to 20, but in the red zone, Gronk is money. In fact, Gronkowski has done his best work in the red zone, and you could see, even in last week’s Houston game, instances where his absence hurt.
I’m not too concerned about how the Patriots will play. They will play well enough. The Texans, if they had any pride, came into last Saturday’s game with a chip on their shoulders. Who among us wants to be known as a tomato can? I’m sure Vince Wilfork and Jadaveon Clowney didn’t see themselves as tomato cans. And they didn’t play like tomato cans either.
That certainly could have had some effect on why the Patriots looked disjointed. Sometimes it’s easy to forget, especially if you’re part of a partisan crowd, that the other guys get paid too.
If the Patriots were inclined to see the Texans as tomato cans, they won’t have to worry about that with the Steelers. They aren’t, and everybody knows it.
So let’s get down to it. Who’s going to win? Ed Bouchette, our man from Pittsburgh with the Lynn roots, thinks the Steelers are hot enough, and healthy enough, to come up here and win, and he feels they’ll prevail 30-27. I have to say I’d be inclined to agree with him but for one thing: The game is in Foxborough, and the Patriots are not the Kansas City Chiefs. They will score touchdowns against the Steelers, and it says here they’ll put the ball in the end zone enough times to win.
Final score: 35-31.
Steve Krause can be reached at skrause@itemlive.com.